Pre-Determining Next Update Positions

[Kevin 11]

I was wondering if anyone has had any luck in pre-determining how positions will fluctuate for the next update?

Is there any way to get some indication at all?

I ask because I am looking to buy some websites with great rankings but am worried that the ranks may tank.

Maybe an impossible question, but I'm open to theories.

[Jaxx]

Check it out:

http://www.rustybrick.com/pagerank-prediction.php

[jrwrestling]

Thats a nice novelty, but I've seen it work incorrectly quite a bit.

[eCommando]

Hm... i tried that program. All the sites I tried had the same PR, but with increase of between 1 to 3 % in PR.

[Smokey51]

I just checked out 3 of of my sites, two of them will increase from 4 to 5 (14.16% and (22.64%) according to the tool. The third I am in the middle of revamping (I have not touched it in six months) and the tool returns that my PR will increase from 4 to 7 (80%)! My, if only that was true! Maybe I should wait.

[James]

You can't calculate the new PR of your site without first calculating new PR of all sites linking to you, and you can't know their PR without first calculating the PR of all sites linking to them, and so on...
Hence a PR update requires a repeated cycle through of all Google's pages many times, and even Google can't predict what your new PR will be until the update is done.

My only advice is this: expect the unexpected.

Glad I could help :)

[Kevin 11]

The tool is interesting but doesnt appear to be all that accurate 100% of the time.

If it is, my partner will be happy, one of his sites is supposed to jump from PR5 to PR10!

We all know the odds of this happening :)

[bluegecko]

The tool says that my pr 6 will jump to a pr 9 when the next pr hits. If that were the case, then I am going to quit my job and be full time seo master.

[SPARKO]

Yeah each day I check it out pops a different result; I'd like to know more about how it works do u just think it counts the number of backlinks in a SE n gives an estimate? No actually that cant be right....I dont know food for thought

[Jaxx]

Honestly....

I really don't know if this tool really works. A jump from 5 to 10 seems crazy..

[wyrickj]

Well from a PR 5 to a PR 10 seems unrealistic unless the site got a bunch of really really strong PR 8 backlinks overnight. I just tryed my site out with it and seemed that it was somewhat correct but always it's a 50/50 chance. But going from Pr5 to PR10 is virtual impossible in one update. Even ask SEO-Guy and he will tell you the same answer.

[SPARKO]

It's quite funny i put my contact.html into it and its going from pagerank 4 to 8 lmao....take no notice of it. I bet its good for drawing lots of uniques to the site though :cool:

[dilligaf]

I sure wish it would lie to me.... mirror mirror on the wall...

[Kevin 11]

Hey Dilligaf, I like your icon, it makes me wish the Canucks were in the final so we could have some hockey rivalry in here!

...what the hell "Go Flames!"

[dilligaf]

Kevin, Looking at your avatar... the last thing you need is another rivalry. "smiley here"

Amazing the number of Canadians (not intending Montreal) on the forum. If I had any decent links to bet with it could make for a pretty decent pay-off (when the Bolts offer Lord Stanley some sunshine... you have to know he'd be happier with the bikini's than the parka's). It's been awhile since the cup was north of the border so there might be some takers.

[Kevin 11]

LOL... I'm all for the bikinis myself, but Lord Stanley will be resting comfortably up in the Great White North this year!

Good thing I'm not a betting man... I always lose when I wager :rolleyes:

It should be a good series nonetheless and that's enough for me...

[Valkhorn]

I think the way that PR calculator works is it just uses the PR from the current backlinks available in google. Either way, it can't update ahead of google, b/c google doesn't release the new backlink information until it's released.

[hugoguzman]

A basic rule of thumb that has always worked for me is this:

Your PR will be equal to or 1-2 numbers lower than your top PR rated backlink(s).

In other words if you don't have any PR 7 links, don't expect to achieve a PR of 7.
200 PR 3 backlinks will not make you a PR 7 (although they will drive an significant amount of traffic to your site), while a couple of PR 7 backlinks might very well push your site to 6 or 7.

Often times, when I first develop a new site, it will automatically jump to a PR 3 (after its first PR update) even though it has absolutely no backlinks other than my own PR5 webdesign site. Meanwhile I see countless sites that have many backlinks (from reciprocal link directories usually), but they are also PR 3 because they have no backlinks with a PR higher than 4.

Anyhow, this is just my two cents.